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Evergreens Insights: A real estate market in search of confidence

In this extract from the “Evergreens by Spuerkeess” podcast, we hear from Pierre Clement (CEO of Nexvia), Max Didier (CEO of Compagnie de Construction Luxembourgeoise and President of the Luxembourg Federation of Property Developers), and Charles Pletsch (Head of Retail Banking at Spuerkeess) as they analyse recent developments in Luxembourg’s property market. Against a backdrop of rising interest rates, a slowdown in construction and shifting buyer expectations, how is the market evolving and what levers could help restore momentum?

How has the property market evolved in recent years?

Pierre Clement: In the existing property market, we saw a very dynamic period up to 2021–2022, driven by low interest rates, strong demand and high levels of confidence. This led to a significant increase in prices. Since 2022, with interest rates rising, we have entered a phase of normalisation. After a correction, prices have stabilised and transaction volumes have gradually picked up again.

Max Didier: In the new-build segment, the situation is more mixed. Whereas we used to deliver between 3.000 and 4.000 homes per year, we are now at around 1.500 units — well below the country’s estimated annual need of approximately 7.500 homes.

Why is the new-build market under particular pressure?

Max Didier: Several factors come into play: rising construction costs, stricter energy requirements and, above all, tighter financing conditions. These make projects more difficult to launch and slow overall production.

Pierre Clement: On top of that, the level of personal equity required can reach nearly 30% when fees are included. This excludes a proportion of buyers who were previously able to invest more easily.

Beyond economic factors, does confidence play a key role?

Charles Pletsch: Yes, particularly in off-plan sales (VEFA). Rising interest rates have weakened some projects and, for the first time, completion guarantees have been triggered without providing all the expected assurances. This has significantly affected buyer confidence.

Max Didier: Restoring this confidence is essential. This will notably require changes to the legal framework to better protect buyers, especially in the event of a developer default.

Is purchasing power now the main constraint?

Pierre Clement: Property purchasing power has indeed fallen markedly, by more than 25%. Financing conditions are stricter and costs higher, making certain transactions far more difficult than before.

Charles Pletsch: This is why it is crucial to prepare your project carefully in advance. A discussion with your bank helps define your borrowing capacity and approach each stage of the purchase with confidence.

Has housing become a factor in Luxembourg’s attractiveness?

Pierre Clement: Absolutely. Housing plays a direct role in the country’s attractiveness. Talent compares Luxembourg with other major European cities, and the cost or availability of housing can influence their decision.

Max Didier: The solution to this issue lies above all in volume. Affordable housing alone will not be enough: overall housing supply must increase in order to rebalance the market.

What advice would you give to buyers in the current context?

Pierre Clement: The market is now more balanced, allowing time for careful consideration. It is important to prioritise the quality of the property, its location, energy performance, and to ensure that no major works are required.

Max Didier: In the new-build segment, it is essential to assess the developer’s financial strength and the overall quality of the project. Price should not be the only criterion.

Charles Pletsch: The first step should always be to consult your bank. This helps define your budget clearly and better understand financing mechanisms.

Does the market need to evolve to better meet current needs?

Pierre Clement: There is a mismatch between supply and demand, particularly for smaller properties. Young professionals are looking for more compact, well-located homes suited to their lifestyle.

Max Didier: The final price also depends on property size. Rethinking this aspect is essential to better align supply with the market’s real needs.

Through these discussions, one conclusion stands out: after a period of euphoria, the Luxembourg property market is moving towards a new equilibrium. In this context, restoring confidence, increasing supply, and adapting to buyers’ changing needs appear to be the key levers for supporting a sustainable recovery.

Housing Sustainability