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Evergreens Insights: Financial Markets Analysis in 2025

In this extract from the podcast “Evergreens by Spuerkeess”, we give the floor to Nick Huberty (Investment Portfolio Manager – Spuerkeess), Julien Ensch (Head of Client Relationship Management – Spuerkeess) and Julien Kohn (Investment Portfolio Manager – Spuerkeess) to look back on an eventful 2025. Between technological shocks, geopolitical tensions and monetary volatility, which trends truly shaped the markets? Discover their insights in this article.

A turbulent start to the year: AI, tariffs and political volatility

2025 began at full speed with the DeepSeek shock — a Chinese low‑cost AI developed to compete with giants like ChatGPT and Gemini. 
The direct consequence: pressure on traditional technology stocks, including Nvidia. But the effect was temporary: service‑oriented companies quickly regained the upper hand compared to sectors dependent on physical goods.

Another key moment: Liberation Day, when Donald Trump announced a list of new tariffs targeting numerous European countries. This shocking announcement briefly dampened the strong performance of European equities during the first half of the year.

Yet, despite a tense context, Europe surprised: its indices achieved some of the best global performances, driven in particular by banks.

USA vs Europe: different growth engines

Although European markets shone in 2025, this success was largely based on attractive valuations.
In contrast, in the United States the rise was supported by genuine earnings growth, concentrated among several tech giants.

All three experts agree: structurally, the United States maintain a lasting advantage — a young population, a dynamic capital market, a more flexible regulatory environment and a political will to attract businesses (notably through the One Big Beautiful Bill).

The dollar in free fall: a headwind for investors

2025 also marked a monetary turning point: the euro strengthened rapidly, moving from USD 1.04 to 1.15 in just a few months.
This sharp movement hurt many European investors who were overly exposed to the U.S. market and created headwinds for exporting companies.

Commodities: gold, silver, copper… a record year

Copper (“Doctor Copper”) reached historic levels, supported by strong demand stemming from the energy transition.
Gold and silver also soared, boosted by declining confidence in central banks and increased demand from Asian central banks — particularly China.

Geopolitics and AI: An increasingly strategic role

The U.S. government was particularly active in 2025, with more volatile communication and a clear intention to regulate AI at the federal level.
Why? Because the global AI race depends — according to experts — on one key factor: access to abundant and low‑cost energy.

This is why new tech hubs are emerging in sunny regions (Texas, Spain, Portugal) and why nuclear energy is regaining interest.

Monetary policy: tighter than it appears

On the central bank front, 2025 was not synonymous with easing.
In the euro area, the end of reinvestments under the post‑Covid emergency programme acted as a Quantitative Tightening, contributing to long‑term rates rising above 3%.

How to invest in 2026? - Between equities, bonds and “Quality”

The experts believe that a balanced portfolio remains essential:

  • Equities, particularly U.S. ones, should continue to benefit from earnings growth.
  • Bonds regain their role as stabilisers thanks to higher yields.
  • The Quality segment (robust companies, recurring business models, high profitability) underperformed in 2025 but may offer an attractive rebound.

As for bitcoin, 2025 was a reminder that it remains above all a speculative asset — difficult to consider a safe haven.

In conclusion: a year of disruption and rebalancing

2025 showed how quickly markets can react — sometimes too quickly. Between AI, trade tensions, monetary policy and geopolitical repositioning, investors must navigate an increasingly globalised… and sometimes unpredictable environment.

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