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The return of volatility
Investment Update - August 2026
July ended in a volatile market environment. While the global index fell by just -0,36%*, this performance masks significant divergences across regions, sectors and investment styles.
After several months of outperformance, US and emerging markets lost momentum, declining by 0,82% and 3,90% respectively. Their already high weighting in portfolios encouraged a rotation towards European markets, which gained 1% over the month. This trend was also reflected in style factors: Value rose by 2,71%, while Growth fell by 3,33%.
This geographical and factor rotation came as investors increasingly questioned the ability to monetise investments in artificial intelligence. In particular, concerns arose over the substantial spending by hyperscalers and its impact on cash flows.
Markets were also affected by renewed tensions in the Middle East. Renewed hostilities involving Iran sent oil prices almost 40% higher from the start of the month, pushing them above USD 100 per barrel. However, a decline of around USD 15 towards the end of the period helped ease inflation concerns.
In bond markets, sovereign yields generally increased, particularly at the long end of the curve. The US 10-year yield rose from 4,45% to 4,73%, while its German counterpart increased from 2,85% to 3,20%. In July, both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve kept their key interest rates unchanged. Their communications nevertheless suggested that limited rate increases could be possible over the coming months.
Indeed, inflation remaining well above the 2% target, combined with resilient economic activity, gives central banks some leeway to maintain a restrictive stance.
In Europe, the economy proved more resilient to the energy shock than expected. Quarterly growth came in at 0,4%, compared with the 0,2% forecast. First-quarter growth was also revised from -0,2% to 0%, supported in particular by robust private spending. In the United States, annualised growth of 1,5% fell short of the 2% expected. Domestic demand nevertheless remains robust, both in terms of consumption and investment.
Against this solid macroeconomic backdrop, despite the risks that remain, portfolio positioning continues to favour risk assets.
Equities remain overweight relative to bonds. Sector allocation retains a cyclical bias. Industrials are benefiting from the artificial intelligence investment cycle, while the recent move back to a neutral position in technology helped portfolios navigate the volatility seen in July more effectively. European and US banks also remain favoured in order to benefit from resilient economic activity and high interest rates. Positions in biotechnology and small- and mid-cap stocks are also being maintained.
From a geographical perspective, positioning has been broadly neutral since early July, both for US equity exposure and European stocks, following a return during the period of volatility.
Finally, within the bond allocation, there remains a clear preference for credit, which is considered more attractive than sovereign bonds and exposure to duration risk.
*Performance figures are calculated in euros.
Disclaimer
The recommendations contained in this document are, unless otherwise expressly stated, those of Spuerkeess Asset Management and are produced by Carlo Stronck, Managing Director & Conducting Officer, Aykut Efe, Economist & Strategist, Guillaume Gehant, Portfolio Manager and Martin Gallienne, Portfolio Manager, acting under an employment contract with Spuerkeess Asset Management.
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