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Markets buoyed by the merry month of May
Investment Update - June 2026
May was a record-breaking month for equity markets, with monthly performance reaching 5,7%*. This result is all the more remarkable given that it followed gains of more than 8%* in April.
Admittedly, the conflict with Iran has not been fully resolved. However, the ceasefire phases and the willingness of both parties to negotiate have been sufficient to prevent an uncontrolled surge in oil prices, the true arbiter of risk appetite in financial markets.
From a geographical perspective, emerging and US markets clearly outperformed, posting returns of 10%* and 5%* respectively, compared with a more modest 3,33%* for Europe.
Yet these spectacular performances cannot be explained solely by the easing of concerns surrounding Iran. Indeed, the latest earnings season delivered exceptionally strong results overall, with technology companies reporting earnings that significantly exceeded expectations, driven by the surge in investment in artificial intelligence. It comes as no surprise that Technology, particularly the semiconductor subsector, was by far the best-performing sector in May. Given the strong momentum of semiconductors, it is no coincidence that emerging markets, where roughly half of market capitalisation is concentrated in three companies from this subsector, achieved such impressive returns.
On the economic front, the latest data confirm that inflation is returning and becoming increasingly embedded. Consumer prices are rising, as are the prices businesses pay to producers. In response, the European Central Bank (ECB) has signalled a forthcoming tightening of monetary policy, in line with market expectations. Its US counterpart, the Federal Reserve (Fed), maintained the status quo by removing the slight dovish bias that had appeared in its most recent communications.
Meanwhile, activity remains robust in the United States and fragile in Europe. US consumer spending remains resilient despite inflation, while investment in artificial intelligence continues to provide substantial support to growth. In Europe, the long-awaited recovery continues to disappoint, with growth forecasts in Germany being revised downwards once again.
Overall, interest rates have risen in response to the resurgence of inflation, fuelled both by substantial investment spending and movements in oil prices. US 10-year government bond yields ended the month at almost 4,50%, a symbolic threshold above which risk appetite tends to be affected, after approaching 4,70% during the month. The German 10-year yield returned to 3% after reaching 3,20% earlier in May.
From an allocation perspective, these exceptional gains achieved over a short period point in favour of profit-taking. This is particularly the case in emerging markets, which have become highly concentrated in a handful of semiconductor companies. As a result, exposure is being modestly increased to Europe, a region that investors have largely neglected in recent months.
Within fixed income, credit remains preferred to government bonds, which continue to face inflationary pressures and structural public deficit concerns. Similarly, duration is being kept relatively short across portfolios.
*Performances are calculated in euros.
Disclaimer
The recommendations contained in this document are, unless otherwise expressly stated, those of Spuerkeess Asset Management and are produced by Carlo Stronck, Managing Director & Conducting Officer, Aykut Efe, Economist & Strategist, Guillaume Gehant, Portfolio Manager and Martin Gallienne, Portfolio Manager, acting under an employment contract with Spuerkeess Asset Management.
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