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A well-earned breather
Investment Update - July 2026
After two months of remarkable performance on equity markets, global indices posted more modest gains (+1,25%*).
Having benefited from a strong trend in Tech and AI on US and emerging markets between April and May, investors favoured the European markets: they posted a performance of 3,05%* at the end of June. Meanwhile, the US markets posted a performance of only 1,31%* and emerging markets were only marginally positive (+0,86%*).
The easing of the conflict in Iran, along with the conflicting news surrounding hopes for a resolution, was likely one of the most favourable developments of the past month. The truce brought Brent crude down by 20%, ending the month at USD 72. As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed, the premium on oil premium, compared with February's level, gradually unwound throughout June.
This easing of pressure on oil also relieved tension in the bond market, with sovereign yields edging slightly lower. After trading at 4,70% in May, the US 10-year yield closed just below 4,50%. Similarly, the German 10-year rate, which had reached 3,20% in May, ended June at 2,90%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) demonstrated its sensitivity to inflation and raised its key rates by 25 basis points. Its deposit rate now stands at 2,25%. It should be noted, however, that the recent easing in oil prices calls into question the need for a second rate hike, which is generally expected to follow the first. Indeed, preliminary June inflation figures are already showing an improvement: annual inflation came in at 2,8% (-0,4 percentage points versus May), with core inflation improving significantly to 2,4% from 2,6% in May.
In the United States, the change of leadership at the Federal Reserve (Fed) has brought its share of uncertainty. At his first FOMC meeting, new Chair Kevin Warsh was reserved, indicating that the Fed would communicate less about its future moves in an effort to “clean up” its relationship with the markets. The Fed will aim not only to be less voluble, but also to be slightly more hawkish on inflation, with Warsh expressing discomfort that inflation has remained above target for “too long”. Fortunately, the recent decline in inflation expectations has not led markets to price in an aggressive response, with only one rate hike expected in the coming months.
With fears of stagflation receding, the economic backdrop is improving. Thus, the overall allocation remains favourable to risk, with equities overweight at the expense of bonds. In June, the gradual fading of stagflation risks that had weighed on Europe triggered a rally in European equities, particularly in industrials and financials. On the other hand, emerging markets, overly concentrated in just three companies, were moved from overweight to neutral.
From a sector perspective, profit-taking on the AI theme led to a neutralisation of positions in Technology. In addition, cyclicality continues to be sought out via sectors such as Industrials and Banks. Finally, a preference for Biotechnology remains in place within the portfolios. Geographically, neutrality has been maintained across regions. Following the improvement in economic prospects in Europe, positioning on the region had already moved from underweight to neutral in May. In the United States, profit-taking following solid performances has moved positioning from overweight to neutral, in line with emerging markets, whose positioning had likewise been shifted to neutral.
On the fixed income side, duration remains contained, with a continued preference for credit over sovereign bonds.
*Performances are calculated in euros.
Disclaimer
The recommendations contained in this document are, unless otherwise expressly stated, those of Spuerkeess Asset Management and are produced by Carlo Stronck, Managing Director & Conducting Officer, Aykut Efe, Economist & Strategist, Guillaume Gehant, Portfolio Manager and Martin Gallienne, Portfolio Manager, acting under an employment contract with Spuerkeess Asset Management.
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