News Flash - January 2026 - The capture of President Maduro and its short-term impact on financial markets
On January 3rd, American armed forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela, resulting in the capture of its president, Nicolás Maduro. Immediately afterwards, American president Donald Trump declared that Washington would take control of the country for an indefinite period. While the event made headlines, its impact on global markets remains limited for now.
No immediate impact on the oil market
Despite this American military offensive, Venezuelan oil infrastructure was not seriously damaged. Key facilities, such as the Amuay refinery, were spared from these attacks. Donald Trump also announced that major American companies would be called upon to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry. Venezuela does possess one of the world’s largest oil reserves (estimated at 300 billion barrels), but sanctions remain in place and therefore limit the deployment of these reserves. Furthermore, most of this is extra-heavy oil, which requires complex and costly refining. In recent years, Venezuela’s oil production has dropped sharply and now represents barely 1% of global production (less than 1 million barrels produced per day). The recovery of oil production and exports will therefore require time and significant capital. Given this situation, oil prices have barely reacted. When Asian markets opened on Monday morning, the price of Brent crude had moderately fallen. In the short term, the geopolitical risk thus seems manageable thanks to an already abundant supply of oil on the market.
Stock markets remain calm
Despite the news from Venezuela, stock exchanges appear to be keeping calm and are even rising. Asian markets recorded significant gains at the opening on Monday morning. European stock exchanges also showed a positive trend. Although spectacular, this event has no major short-term consequences. Large oil companies could certainly benefit in the medium term from a possible reopening of the Venezuelan oil sector, but the immediate impact remains limited. In response to prevailing uncertainty, certain investors are allocating assets to precious metals, which are also experiencing price increases this morning. For sovereign rates in core countries, this news does not change monetary policy expectations. Nevertheless, an increased level of American intervention may introduce volatility that could impact the yield curves of certain emerging Latin American economies.