Die Luftattacke der USA und Israels auf den Iran und ihre kurzfristigen Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte

Armed conflicts in the Middle East have returned. Since last Saturday, 28 February, Israeli-American airstrikes have been targeting Iran after negotiations between the United States and Iran over the nuclear issue collapsed.

Naval installations, missile sites, and command-and-control centers linked to the Revolutionary Guards have been the main targets of these airstrikes, as well as members of the ruling class, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who lost his life following the American strikes.

Once again, oil is the primary channel through which this armed conflict may have repercussions on global markets. Indeed, the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, is at the center of attention because 20% of the world’s oil exports pass through it. Although Iran cannot unilaterally “close” the strait, traffic is nearly at a standstill this Monday morning. According to some reports, oil tankers have been hit around the strait. Certainly, traffic is slowing sharply. However, it should be remembered that if the Iranian government were to fully shut it down, it would paralyze its own economy, given Iran’s dependence on this passage for its oil exports. Furthermore, the possibility of a maritime escort is on the table, with security potentially ensured by U.S. warships.

For now, market reactions are natural and appear relatively healthy: oil is rising by 7–8%, equity indices are down 2% in Europe and 1.5% in the United States, and the dollar and gold are acting as safe havens, rising by 1% and 2% respectively. Sovereign yields remain contained, with increases limited to 3–4 basis points.

A relatively measured reaction suggests that markets feel somewhat reassured regarding the likelihood of a broader escalation or prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. A certain abundance of oil already existed before the conflict, and OPEC+ countries announced production increases as soon as the conflict broke out. Finally, while it is true that conflicts in the Middle East tend to push up oil prices, markets have become less sensitive to them, as the United States has become a significant producer of crude oil.

Thus, from an asset allocation perspective, the United States continues to be the geographically overweighted region, as it benefits both from a certain degree of self-sufficiency in oil and from a dollar that plays its role as a safe haven—unlike Europe and some emerging markets that are oil importers. As for fixed income, duration risk continues to be avoided, with a preference for high-quality credit.

We continue to monitor the situation closely and will not hesitate to adjust our positioning based on developments should it become necessary.